Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice Gets Moved… to March?

You might remember back at the beginning of the year when Warner Bros. announced that their big-ticket title Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice had been pushed back to 2016 to give the filmmakers "time to realizefully their vision, given the complex visual nature of the story." You might also remember that Zack Snyder, the highly visual director and Maestro of March, is directing what should setup DC’s long awaited Justice League movie. Well, yesterday Batman v. Superman was moved again, but this time Warner Bros. people are not saying it is for artistic reasons.

Instead, this is a business decision. Batman v. Superman was originally going to battle May 6, 2016 an unnamed Marvel film, and Warner Bros. seemed to be in a pretty decent position. And then Marvel chose to rattle that cages, so to speak, by announcing that Captain America, he of glorious 2014 April Box Office success, would get his third movie the same weekend as Batman v. Superman. The prospect of watching two blockbusters from competing companies going head-to-head was mouthwatering, but unrealistic. DC and Marvel were never going to release huge films (Warner/DC’s biggest release and Marvel’s hottest non-assemble-based asset) on the same weekend. Sure, one company might “win” the weekend, but not without each film’s total haul being limited by the presence of the other. But before pragmatism prevailed, we were left with an impressive game of chicken. The question became who would blink first. Warner did, but it’s OK because they moved Batman v. Superman to the ideal summer movie date of… March 25, 2016? Wait, what?

This is when I stroke my beard and go hmmm… for about five seconds longer than I normally would.  I’ve never known quite how I feel about this project, but the move to late March isn’t inspiring any more confidence. I can think of two reactions to news of the move, one optimistic and the other pessimistic. The optimists will consider this Warner Bros.’ attempt to stretch the summer movie season even closer to the beginning of the year. “March is the new June!” they’ll boldly claim. Pessimists might view this move as an indicator of reduced confidence in the project, the early release date not exactly the giving off the right vibes for your $200million+ tent-pole that is supposed to pave the way for the Justice League movie which will consume us all. While blockbusters have had success earlier and earlier in the year (Captain America: The Winter Soldier just had the biggest opening ever for the month of April), March hasn’t necessarily been the kindest month to hundred million dollar behemoths. Sure, it does not have the stink-bomb reputation of January and February Dumpuary (which is getting Jupiter’s Ascending next year!), but March has, at least recently, been the slot for family films, new and unproven big budget titles, or some strange combination of the two. Take a look at the all-time Opening Weekend leaders for March:

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
1	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747	37.4%	4,137	$36,871	$408,010,692	3/23/12
2	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$116,101,023	34.7%	3,728	$31,143	$334,191,110	3/5/10
3	Oz The Great and Powerful	BV	$79,110,453	33.7%	3,912	$20,223	$234,911,825	3/8/13
4	300	WB	$70,885,301	33.7%	3,103	$22,844	$210,614,939	3/9/07
5	Dr. Seuss' The Lorax	Uni.	$70,217,070	32.8%	3,729	$18,830	$214,030,500	3/2/12

Source: Box Office Mojo

Leading the way is 2012’s The Hunger Games, no doubt buoyed by being a successful young adult novel adapted for the big screen, which is one of the safest fucking bets in the industry right now. From there, we get three animated, family films and Snyder’s 300 (not in that order). We’ll address Snyder in a second, but look at the list again, and you begin to see how geared towards families March is. Animated films are highlighted in yellow:

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
1	The Hunger Games	LGF	$152,535,747	37.4%	4,137	$36,871	$408,010,692	3/23/12
2	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$116,101,023	34.7%	3,728	$31,143	$334,191,110	3/5/10
3	Oz The Great and Powerful	BV	$79,110,453	33.7%	3,912	$20,223	$234,911,825	3/8/13
4	300	WB	$70,885,301	33.7%	3,103	$22,844	$210,614,939	3/9/07
5	Dr. Seuss' The Lorax	Uni.	$70,217,070	32.8%	3,729	$18,830	$214,030,500	3/2/12
6	Ice Age: The Meltdown	Fox	$68,033,544	34.8%	3,964	$17,162	$195,330,621	3/31/06
7	Monsters Vs. Aliens	P/DW	$59,321,095	29.9%	4,104	$14,454	$198,351,526	3/27/09
8	Watchmen	WB	$55,214,334	51.4%	3,611	$15,291	$107,509,799	3/6/09
9	Divergent	LG/S	$54,607,747	36.2%	3,936	$13,874	$150,947,895	3/21/14
10	Ice Age	Fox	$46,312,454	26.3%	3,316	$13,966	$176,387,405	3/15/02
11	300: Rise of An Empire	WB	$45,038,460	42.3%	3,470	$12,979	$106,580,051	3/7/14
12	Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!	Fox	$45,012,998	29.1%	3,954	$11,384	$154,529,439	3/14/08
13	How to Train Your Dragon	P/DW	$43,732,319	20.1%	4,055	$10,785	$217,581,231	3/26/10
14	Noah	Par.	$43,720,472	43.2%	3,567	$12,257	$101,200,044	3/28/14
15	The Croods	Fox	$43,639,736	23.3%	4,046	$10,786	$187,168,425	3/22/13

Source: Box Office Mojo

Nine of the top fifteen films for March are animated, and of the remaining six, two (The Hunger Games and Divergent) were young adult novel adaptations, Noah was a sizable film from an acclaimed director that made back its bacon, and Snyder was involved in the other three. Considering The Hunger Games and Divergent, March is certainly a month that brings in younger viewers, but not in the schools-out-for-the-summer way that June, July, and August bring in teenagers and young adults who pack mall theaters in an effort to, ya know, do something during summer vacation. Animation rules March, and when the big boys of live action line up for a seat at the table, they often do so with disappointing results. Listed below are three of the biggest budget films ever released in March, all with budgets over $150million, plus one non-blockbuster film (Note: Alice in Wonderland, Tim Burton’s $200million white-faced, hallucinogenic-fueled adaptation, is not included here because it ranks 2^nd all-time in March Opening Weekends. Somehow):

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
24	Wrath of the Titans	WB	$33,457,188	40.0%	3,545	$9,438	$83,670,083	3/30/12
32	John Carter	BV	$30,180,188	41.3%	3,749	$8,050	$73,078,100	3/9/12
38	Jack the Giant Slayer	WB (NL)	$27,202,226	41.7%	3,525	$7,717	$65,187,603	3/1/13
39	Dawn of the Dead	Uni.	$26,722,575	45.3%	2,745	$9,735	$59,020,957	3/19/04

Source: Box Office Mojo

Wrath of the Titans, John Carter, and Jack the Giant Slayer represent three spectacularly expensive films and three spectacularly expensive failures. Wrath, the sequel to Clash of the Titans, cost $150 million, yet only managed $83 million domestically, nowhere near its predecessor’s $163million. John Carter, at $250million, and Jack, at $195million, are even worse. Buena Vista hoped John Carter would be the start of a new franchise, but returns as paltry as $73million domestic mean that is never going to happen. As for Jack, its Opening Weekend outshines Snyder’s Dawn of the Dead (the non-blockbuster included above) by $500,000, which is even sadder when you learn that Dawn made back its entire budget ($26million) in that one weekend.  Sure, big-budget, live action films like Watchmen, 300: Rise of Empire (more Snyder associated March films!) and Noah found their audiences in March, but I’d posit that the largest tent-poles struggle mightily in the early month. In the studios’ defense, no one quite knew how these new blockbusters would do (let’s be real, who thought Jack the Giant Slayer would slay the box office?), so maybe they’d have struggled during the summer too.

I keep mentioning Snyder and March. Why? Well four of his six films have been released in March (Dawn of the Dead, 300, Watchmen, and, wait for it… Sucker Punch). On the March Opening Weekends list, these films rank 39^th, 4^th, 8^th, and 64^th respectively, so he’s done very well with two of these films, better than expected with one, and very poorly with another.  Batman v. Superman will be number five, and I expect it to join 300 and Watchmen at the top of that chart. I have my own opinions of Snyder; he brings visual flair that few in the industry have the ambition or budget to match, but he also has the subtlety of a dump truck. He’ll pulverize you at the expense of narrative consistency, and he has a knack for providing talented actors and actresses with characters that give them nothing to do (think Amy Adams as Lois Lane in Man of Steel). I can complain about him all I want, but it won’t change the fact that this film believes it can rule hit-or-miss March box office that Snyder has dealt with before.

Who knows if Batman v. Superman will have any of these typically Snyderian problems. Even if it does, that won’t matter. Box Office success can't be truly predicted, but the film should make plenty of money in two years’ time, and, barring a John Carter-esque failure, will be Step 1. in Warner Bros./DC’s plan to redirect superhero audiences away from their rivals at Marvel. Yet I can’t help but think that executives at Marvel are already pouring themselves a drink, for they have won the release date war. And if Captain America: 3 ends up making more than Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, there could be some serious finger pointing at Warner Bros. I’d pay $13 to see that.