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You might remember back at the beginning of the year when Warner
Bros. announced that their big-ticket title Batman
v. Superman: Dawn of Justice had been pushed back to 2016 to give the
filmmakers "time to realizefully their vision, given the complex visual nature of the story." You
might also remember that Zack Snyder, the highly visual director and Maestro of
March, is directing what should setup DC’s long awaited Justice League movie. Well,
yesterday Batman v. Superman was
moved again, but this time Warner Bros. people are not saying it is for
artistic reasons.
Instead, this is a business
decision. Batman v. Superman was
originally going to battle May 6, 2016 an unnamed Marvel film, and Warner Bros. seemed to be in a pretty decent position. And then Marvel chose to rattle that
cages, so to speak, by announcing that Captain America, he of glorious 2014
April Box Office success, would get his third movie the same weekend as Batman
v. Superman. The prospect of watching two blockbusters from competing companies
going head-to-head was mouthwatering, but unrealistic. DC and Marvel were never
going to release huge films (Warner/DC’s biggest release and Marvel’s hottest
non-assemble-based asset) on the same weekend. Sure, one company might “win”
the weekend, but not without each film’s total haul being limited by the
presence of the other. But before pragmatism prevailed, we were left with an
impressive game of chicken. The question became who would blink first. Warner did, but
it’s OK because they moved Batman v. Superman to the ideal summer movie date
of… March 25, 2016? Wait, what?
This is when I stroke my beard and
go hmmm… for about five seconds longer than I normally would. I’ve never known quite how I feel about this project, but the move to late March isn’t inspiring any more
confidence. I can think of two reactions to news of the move, one
optimistic and the other pessimistic. The optimists will consider this Warner
Bros.’ attempt to stretch the summer movie season even closer to the beginning
of the year. “March is the new June!” they’ll boldly claim. Pessimists might view this move as an indicator of reduced confidence in the project, the
early release date not exactly the giving off the right vibes for your
$200million+ tent-pole that is supposed to pave the way for the Justice League
movie which will consume us all. While blockbusters have had success earlier
and earlier in the year (Captain America: The Winter Soldier just had the
biggest opening ever for the month of April), March hasn’t necessarily been the
kindest month to hundred million dollar behemoths. Sure, it does not have the
stink-bomb reputation of January and February Dumpuary (which is getting
Jupiter’s Ascending next year!), but March has, at least recently, been the
slot for family films, new and unproven big budget titles, or some strange
combination of the two. Take a look at the all-time Opening Weekend leaders for
March:
1
|
$152,535,747
|
37.4%
|
4,137
|
$36,871
|
$408,010,692
|
|||
2
|
$116,101,023
|
34.7%
|
3,728
|
$31,143
|
$334,191,110
|
|||
3
|
$79,110,453
|
33.7%
|
3,912
|
$20,223
|
$234,911,825
|
|||
4
|
$70,885,301
|
33.7%
|
3,103
|
$22,844
|
$210,614,939
|
|||
5
|
$70,217,070
|
32.8%
|
3,729
|
$18,830
|
$214,030,500
|
Source: Box Office Mojo
Leading the way is 2012’s The Hunger Games, no doubt buoyed by
being a successful young adult novel adapted for the big screen, which is one
of the safest fucking bets in the industry right now. From there, we get three
animated, family films and Snyder’s 300 (not
in that order). We’ll address Snyder in a second, but look at the list again,
and you begin to see how geared towards families March is. Animated films are
highlighted in yellow:
1
|
$152,535,747
|
37.4%
|
4,137
|
$36,871
|
$408,010,692
|
|||
2
|
$116,101,023
|
34.7%
|
3,728
|
$31,143
|
$334,191,110
|
|||
3
|
$79,110,453
|
33.7%
|
3,912
|
$20,223
|
$234,911,825
|
|||
4
|
$70,885,301
|
33.7%
|
3,103
|
$22,844
|
$210,614,939
|
|||
5
|
$70,217,070
|
32.8%
|
3,729
|
$18,830
|
$214,030,500
|
|||
6
|
$68,033,544
|
34.8%
|
3,964
|
$17,162
|
$195,330,621
|
|||
7
|
$59,321,095
|
29.9%
|
4,104
|
$14,454
|
$198,351,526
|
|||
8
|
$55,214,334
|
51.4%
|
3,611
|
$15,291
|
$107,509,799
|
|||
9
|
$54,607,747
|
36.2%
|
3,936
|
$13,874
|
$150,947,895
|
|||
10
|
$46,312,454
|
26.3%
|
3,316
|
$13,966
|
$176,387,405
|
|||
11
|
$45,038,460
|
42.3%
|
3,470
|
$12,979
|
$106,580,051
|
|||
12
|
$45,012,998
|
29.1%
|
3,954
|
$11,384
|
$154,529,439
|
|||
13
|
$43,732,319
|
20.1%
|
4,055
|
$10,785
|
$217,581,231
|
|||
14
|
$43,720,472
|
43.2%
|
3,567
|
$12,257
|
$101,200,044
|
|||
15
|
$43,639,736
|
23.3%
|
4,046
|
$10,786
|
$187,168,425
|
Nine of the top fifteen films for
March are animated, and of the remaining six, two (The Hunger Games and Divergent) were young adult novel adaptations, Noah was a sizable film from an acclaimed director that made back its bacon, and Snyder was involved in the other three. Considering The Hunger Games and Divergent, March is certainly a month that brings in younger viewers,
but not in the schools-out-for-the-summer way that June, July, and August bring
in teenagers and young adults who pack mall theaters in an effort to, ya know, do something during summer vacation. Animation
rules March, and when the big boys of live action line up for a seat at the table, they often do so with disappointing results. Listed below are three of
the biggest budget films ever released in March, all with budgets over
$150million, plus one non-blockbuster film (Note: Alice in Wonderland, Tim Burton’s $200million white-faced,
hallucinogenic-fueled adaptation, is not included here because it ranks 2nd
all-time in March Opening Weekends. Somehow):
24
|
$33,457,188
|
40.0%
|
3,545
|
$9,438
|
$83,670,083
|
|||
32
|
$30,180,188
|
41.3%
|
3,749
|
$8,050
|
$73,078,100
|
|||
38
|
$27,202,226
|
41.7%
|
3,525
|
$7,717
|
$65,187,603
|
|||
39
|
$26,722,575
|
45.3%
|
2,745
|
$9,735
|
$59,020,957
|
Wrath of the Titans, John Carter, and Jack the Giant
Slayer represent three spectacularly expensive films and three
spectacularly expensive failures. Wrath,
the sequel to Clash of the Titans, cost
$150 million, yet only managed $83 million domestically, nowhere near its
predecessor’s $163million. John Carter, at
$250million, and Jack, at $195million, are
even worse. Buena Vista hoped John Carter
would be the start of a new franchise, but returns as paltry as $73million
domestic mean that is never going to happen. As for Jack, its Opening Weekend outshines Snyder’s Dawn of the Dead (the non-blockbuster included above) by $500,000, which is even sadder when you learn that Dawn made back its entire budget
($26million) in that one weekend. Sure,
big-budget, live action films like Watchmen, 300:
Rise of Empire (more Snyder associated March films!) and Noah found their audiences in March, but
I’d posit that the largest tent-poles struggle mightily in the early month. In
the studios’ defense, no one quite knew how these new blockbusters would do
(let’s be real, who thought Jack the
Giant Slayer would slay the box office?), so maybe they’d have struggled
during the summer too.
I keep mentioning Snyder and March.
Why? Well four of his six films have been released in March (Dawn of the Dead, 300, Watchmen, and,
wait for it… Sucker Punch). On the
March Opening Weekends list, these films rank 39th, 4th,
8th, and 64th respectively, so he’s done very well with
two of these films, better than expected with one, and very poorly with another. Batman
v. Superman will be number five, and I expect it to join 300 and Watchmen at the top of that chart. I have my own opinions of
Snyder; he brings visual flair that few in the industry have the ambition or
budget to match, but he also has the subtlety of a dump truck. He’ll pulverize
you at the expense of narrative consistency, and he has a knack for providing
talented actors and actresses with characters that give them nothing to do
(think Amy Adams as Lois Lane in Man of Steel).
I can complain about him all I want, but it won’t change the fact that this
film believes it can rule hit-or-miss March box office that Snyder has dealt
with before.
Who knows if Batman v. Superman will have any of these typically Snyderian
problems. Even if it does, that won’t matter. Box Office success can't be truly predicted, but the film should make plenty of
money in two years’ time, and, barring a John
Carter-esque failure, will be Step 1. in Warner Bros./DC’s plan to redirect
superhero audiences away from their rivals at Marvel. Yet I can’t help but
think that executives at Marvel are already pouring themselves a drink, for
they have won the release date war. And if Captain
America: 3 ends up making more than Batman
v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, there could be some serious finger pointing
at Warner Bros. I’d pay $13 to see that.
